¿Ha bajado la demanda de compra de vivienda? No estoy seguro.
Para todos los lectores que no leen mi blog de manera habitual, les cuento que uno de los negocios que tengo es la Revista Inmobiliaria Miracasa de Tenerife. Es una revista de propiedades inmobiliarias de distribución gratuita.
Les comento esto porque en los últimos tres meses el consumo de ejemplares se ha disparado, cosa que me ha sorprendido muchísimo ya que estamos en plena crisis inmobiliaria, financiera, mundial.
Por lógica, si el número de ventas de propiedades desciende, es porque hay menor demanda y la gente compra menos casas. Esto resultaría en un inevitable descenso en el consumo de revistas inmobiliarias gratuitas – pero no es así.
Mi posibles explicaciones son:
a. Que los propietarios, compradores, vendedores, inversores, especuladores, inmobiliarias, bancos (todo el mundo) están atentos a la crisis del sector y quieren comprobar si todo lo que esta ocurriendo se ve reflejado en un claro descenso de los precios.
b. Que hay mucha gente esperando el momento adecuado de comprar y están en busca de chollos.
c. Las dos cosas.
d. Estoy totalmente equivocado y una cosa no tiene nada que ver con la otra.
¿Ustedes que piensan?
Creo que la B.
Yo creo que la demanda de vivienda ha bajado, y explico por qué:
- La gente joven, piensa más en el alquiler. La compra es una opción más remota.
- La gente que antes compraba una vivienda para inversión, ahora ya no invierte en viviendas a no ser que sean chollos.
- Existe además una crisis financiera, que hace que cuando vallas al banco a pedir un crédito hipotecario, te pongan unas condiciones mucho más severas, o directamente no te lo dan, lo que hace que la gente que quiere comprar, lo tenga más dificil aún.
Estoy totalmente de acuerdo con los argumentos que expones Jesús. Pero leyéndolos, me suenan más a objeciones e impedimentos (muy reales eso sí) que a un descenso en la demanda.
Reflexionando acerca de lo que acabo de decir, creo que al fin y al cabo son todo factores que afectan a la demanda así que no creo que tenga mucho sentido.
Por este motivo concluyo que el aumento del consumo de revistas se debe a que la sociedad en general esta muy pendiente de la evolución del mercado y lo que ocurrirá en el futuro. ¿Qué mejor indicador que el precio de las viviendas?
Sin embargo, lo que si se nota muchísimo es la incertidumbre que reina. Tanto el gobierno, como los bancos, como los compradores e inversores están expectantes, casi impacientes para que algo se mueva y defina un poco que es lo que esta ocurriendo.
¿Quién sufre realmente entonces? Pues las agencias inmobiliarias, los promotores, y los propietarios de viviendas que no disponen de liquidez en estos momentos para afrontar los pagos.
Estoy de acuerdo en la elección de respuesta de Jesús, a mi parecer, hoy más que nunca todo el mundo sabe de cuestiones inmobiliarias, de que la cosa va mal,de las crisis financieras…. y más aún con el endeudamiento hipotecario que están soportando las familias en la actualidad.
La gente está desorientada, y por ello buscan el mejor momento para realizar la adquisición de una vivienda. Lo que ocurre es que muchas veces no se deciden ya que temen que sigan bajando los precios y no se arrioesgan a comprar a menos que encuentren un chollo.
Los jóvenes por descontado que no piensan en comprar, las ayudas de emancipación les ha hecho ir más por la vía del alquiler, prorrogando la idea de comprar definitivamente.
Saludos.
Yo he hablado en SIMA con una serie de amigos de diferentes partes del mundo, y todos han coincidido que el comprador español tiene cultura inmobiliaria, es perspicaz y se prepara con informacion antes de comprar. Pienso que Jesús esta en lo cierto, pero Pangalos hace una pregunta interesante al final, ¿quien sufre?.
Pienso que cuando se abre una empresa se debe tener una base fuerte que soporte las tempesatades, de lo contrario cuando hay un poco de viento y nubes negras avecinandose salta a la vista lo poco preparada que esta la empresa.
Lo preocupante no debe ser que los compradores estan esperando, si no que hay muchisimas empresas que no tienen bases sólidas. Esto no es buena señal si yo soy cliente de la misma, en cualquier momento podrían dejarme en la calle y sin auxilio.
Saludos a todos
Alicia Yabeta
Estoy totalmente de acuerdo en el punto a y b,y la necesidad de comprar una vivienda sigue latente en la mayoría de las personas.
Creo también que se ha aprovechado esta crisis que en parte creo que no es real del todo aquí en España, para aumentar el régimen de alquiler y hacer descender el régimen de compra ¿Quién no se acuerda de las manifestaciones que ha habido por parte de gente joven que no encontraba un piso en régimen de alquiler.
Siento decepcionaros.
La venta de viviendas se está deteniendo. Muchos compradores se han dado un plazo de compra de 2 años, esperando la evolución del mercado.
Además, los bancos no prestan fácilmente su dinero para compra de vivienda.
El gobierno finalmente ha decidido no subvencionar las pérdias en actividad inmobiliaria, como era de esperar.
A las inmobiliarias sólo les queda alargar los préstamos hipotecarios, y compensarlos alquilando los inmuebles. ¿Plazo? superior a 50 años, es decir 2 generaciones para deglutir el bucle (crisis financiera-altos precios de vivienda)
Un saludo a todos.
II. NARCÍS SERRA I SERRA
Cifras para la CRISIS
Rafael del Barco Carreras
En Internet, por las más célebres de las inmobiliarias que han renegociado sus créditos, solicitado “concurso de acreedores” o un simple “portazo” (en la manzana donde vivo dos chiringuitos), uno se percata que el tema es de una dimensión nunca jamás alcanzada. Las cifras que las CAJAS Y CAIXAS han prestado sin posibilidad de cobrar son de vértigo, y si este verano o año el consumo no se resiente la única explicación es que el turismo hace de colchón a la crisis (como en tiempos de Franco) o que el dinero esparcido en tan peculiar DESARROLLO INMOBILIARIO permite irse de vacaciones…!y Dios dirá!, y a rezar para que el BCE siga inyectando euros.
¿Y qué ordena el hombre que se empeñó en mis TRES AÑOS DE PRISIÓN PREVENTIVA? Ver http://www.lagrancorrupcion.com
1ª, muestra. El pasado año, 2007, al estilo DE LA ROSA (con quién tan buenos negocios hizo su Partido en el 80), pero multiplicando las cifras, su CAIXA DE CATALUÑA vende RIOFISA a Luis Portillo, al que con créditos su Caixa y la CAIXA han convertido en efímero, dicen, propietario de la mayor inmobiliaria de Cataluña INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SA… disparando (artificialmente) su valor en BOLSA para al poco el sonado descalabro…BILLONES DE LAS ANTIGUAS PESETAS. Un billón es un millón de millones, 6 MIL MILLONES DE EUROS. En esa sola operación cualquier FISCALÍA que no dependiera del Poder Ejecutivo encontraría varios delitos.
2ª, la CAIXA DE CATALUÑA, declara unos beneficios de 447 millones de euros de los que 300 provienen de la operación RIOFISA, los restantes 147 con solo…. “provisionando” Martinsa-Fadesa o cualquier otra… se queda bajo cero…pérdidas… un enjuague contable…delictivo…
3ª, el 2008, despide al director general y se anuncian más despidos y prejubilaciones. Se me ocurre que liquidar los cargos “clave” es una excelente operación para borrar la “memoria histórica”, porque si las prejubilaciones de los 90 (varios de mis compañeros del Instituto Bancario), en la BANCA, las entendí como una renovación por las “nuevas tecnologías” además del reajuste de plantillas tras las macrofusiones, en las CAIXAS no tienen explicación.
4ª, en las genialidades de la compra a ACS de Florentino Pérez (un multimillonario de la última hornada como Luis Portillo) del 45% de UNIÓN-FENOSA para la OPA de TRES BILLONES con la CAIXA y GAS NATURAL…la tele nos muestra el geniecillo Serra cargado de maletines… de documentos…
5ª. Los despidos y prejubilaciones vienen seguidos de nuevos CARGOS. El nuevo director general Adolf Todó remodela la cúpula directiva. Es curioso que necesite reforzar su área de COMUNICACIÓN E IMAGEN, con alguien de la CAIXA, la Grande, y la de los SERVICIOS JURÍDICOS con un ex juez, Juan Rafols, si por los 80 su presidente Narcís Serra dominaba la prensa y juzgados a la perfección.
Y siguen las operaciones de maquillaje para que las “nuevas generaciones” no tengan ni idea de por ejemplo como se creó el PLAN DE LA RIBERA (Narcís Serra con Samaranch, su gran amigo Pedro Durán Farell de GAS, ver su web, Miguel Roca, Maragall, Pujol…y pelotazos donde se encuentra hasta Pascual Estevill, el fugado y muerto en Panamá John Rosillo, etc…), y como hipotecas y sociedades con los terrenos y PISOS MÁS CAROS DE LA CIUDAD pasan de un balance a otro, pues a nadie se le ocurre comprar en el Besós por UN MILLÓN DE EUROS… aunque sé de un narco soñando con piso y amarre para el yate. “¿Cómo lo hago Rafael?”. “Primero tendrás que salir de BRIANS y de los ocho años te faltan varios”. El desgraciado me lo decía embobado ante las construcciones del FÓRUM, en una de las “salidas programadas” para que admiráramos la gran obra, y en que se “fugó” uno de los del grupo. La única industria de Barcelona capaz de esas ventas y cifras, el narcotráfico y su blanqueo.
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